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If you prefer to use the old commands %% please give \usepackage{epsfig} %% The amssymb package provides various useful mathematical symbols \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{multimedia} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{multimedia} \usepackage{graphics} \usepackage{bbm} \usepackage{pstricks} \usepackage{amsthm} \usepackage{graphics} \usepackage{pgf} \usepackage{wrapfig} \usepackage{mathtools} \usepackage{caption} \usepackage{subcaption} %\usepackage{hyperref} \newcommand{\vectornorm}[1]{\left|\left|#1\right|\right|} \newcommand{\bo}[1]{\mathbf{#1}} %\newcommand{\vectornorm}[1]{\left|\left|#1\right|\right|} \newcommand{\dif}[2]{\frac{\partial #1}{\partial #2}} \newcommand{\diff}[2]{\frac{\partial^2 #1}{\partial {#2}^2}} \newcommand{\odif}[2]{\frac{d #1}{d #2}} \newcommand{\odiff}[2]{\frac{d^2 #1}{d #2^2}} %% The amsthm package provides extended theorem environments %% \usepackage{amsthm} %% The lineno packages adds line numbers. Start line numbering with %% \begin{linenumbers}, end it with \end{linenumbers}. Or switch it on %% for the whole article with \linenumbers. %% \usepackage{lineno} \journal{Ocean Modellling} \begin{document} \begin{frontmatter} %% Title, authors and addresses %% use the tnoteref command within \title for footnotes; %% use the tnotetext command for theassociated footnote; %% use the fnref command within \author or \address for footnotes; %% use the fntext command for theassociated footnote; %% use the corref command within \author for corresponding author footnotes; %% use the cortext command for theassociated footnote; %% use the ead command for the email address, %% and the form \ead[url] for the home page: %% \title{Title\tnoteref{label1}} %% \tnotetext[label1]{} %% \author{Name\corref{cor1}\fnref{label2}} %% \ead{email address} %% \ead[url]{home page} %% \fntext[label2]{} %% \cortext[cor1]{} %% \address{Address\fnref{label3}} %% \fntext[label3]{} \title{Modelling Surface Currents in the Eastern Levantine Mediterranean Using Surface Drifters and Satellite Altimetry Data} %% use optional labels to link authors explicitly to addresses: %% \author[label1,label2]{} %% \address[label1]{} %% \address[label2]{} \author{Leila Issa, Julien Brajard, Milad Fakhri, Daniel Hayes, Laurent Mortier and Pierre-Marie Poulain. } \address{ Department of Computer Science and Mathematics\\ Lebanese American University\\ Beirut, Lebanon\\ Email: leila.issa@lau.edu.lb } \begin{abstract} We present a new and fast method for blending altimetry and surface drifters data in the Eastern Levantine Mediterranean. The method is based on a variational assimilation approach for which the velocity is corrected by matching real drifters positions with a simple advection model simulation, %after drifters data are matched to a simple advection model for their positions, taking into account the effect of the wind. The velocity correction is done in a time-continuous fashion by assimilating at once a whole trajectory of drifters in a time window, and by moving that window to exploit correlations between observations. We show that with few drifters, our method improves the estimation of velocity in two typical situations : an eddy between the Lebanese coast and Cyprus, and velocities along the Lebanese coast. \end{abstract} \begin{keyword} %% keywords here, in the form: keyword \sep keyword Altimetry \sep lagrangian data \sep data assimilations \sep drifters \sep surface velocity fields %% PACS codes here, in the form: \PACS code \sep code \sep Eastern Levantine Mediterranean %% MSC codes here, in the form: \MSC code \sep code %% or \MSC[2008] code \sep code (2000 is the default) \end{keyword} \end{frontmatter} %% \linenumbers %% main text \section{Introduction} \label{} An accurate estimation of mesoscale to sub-mesoscale surface dynamics of the ocean is critical in several applications in the Eastern Levantine Mediterranean basin. For instance, this estimation can be used in the study of pollutant dispersion, which is important in this heavily populated region. A good knowledge of the surface velocity field is challenging, especially when direct observations are relatively sparse. Altimetry has been widely used to predict the mesoscale features of the ocean resolving typically lengths on the order of $100$ km \citep{chelton2007global}. There are, however, limitations to its usage. It is inaccurate in resolving short temporal and spatial scales of some physical processes, like eddies, which results in blurring these structures. Further errors and inaccuracies occur near the coastal areas (within 20-50 km from land), where satellite information is degraded; this is due to various factors such as land contamination, inaccurate tidal and geophysical corrections and incorrect removal of high frequency atmospheric effects at the sea surface \citep{caballero2014validation}. To improve geostrophic velocities, especially near the coast, in situ observations provided by drifters can be considered (e.g. \citet{bouffard2008, ruiz2009mesoscale}). %[Bouffard et al., 2010; Ruiz et al., 2009] . Drifters follow the currents and when numerous, they allow for an extensive spatial coverage of the region of interest. They are not very expensive, easily deployable and provide accurate information on their position and other environmental parameters \citep{lumpkin2007measuring}. To illustrate the information provided by drifters data, we show in Figure~\ref{fig:cnrs} the real-time positions of three drifters launched south of Beirut on August 28 2013. These positions can be compared to the positions that would have been obtained if the drifters were advected by the altimetric velocity field. We observe that unlike the corresponding positions simulated by the altimetric field provided by \textit{Aviso} (see section~\ref{sec:aviso}), the drifters stay within 10-20 km from the coast. The background velocity field shown in that figure is the geostrophic field, averaged over a period of 6 days. The drifters' in situ data render a more precise image of the local surface velocity than the altimetric one; however, this only possible along the path following their trajectory. These types of data are therefore complementary. Numerous studies aim at exploiting the information provided by drifters (Lagrangian data) to assess the Eulerian surface velocity. A large number of these rely on modifying a dynamical model of this velocity by minimising the distance between observed and model simulated drifters trajectories. This variational assimilation approach, which was classically used in weather predictions \citep{courtier1994strategy,dimet1986variational}, was tested successfully in this context, by using several types of models for the velocity, such as idealised point vortex models \citep{kuznetsov2003method}, General Circulation Models with simplified stratification (e.g. \cite{kamachi1995continuous}; \cite{molcard2005lagrangian}; \cite{ozgokmen2003assimilation}, \cite{nodet2006variational}). However, in a lot of applications involving pollutant spreading such as the ones we are interested in, a fast diagnosis of the velocity field is needed in areas which are not a priori known in details. This prompts the need for a simple model that is fast and easy to implement, but that keeps the essential physical features of the velocity. In this work, we propose a new algorithm that blends geostrophic and drifters data in an optimal way. The method is based on a simple advection model for the drifters, that takes into account the wind effect and that imposes a divergence free constraint on the geostrophic component. The algorithm is used to estimate the surface velocity field in the Eastern Levantine basin, in particular in the region between Cyprus and the Syrio-Lebanese coast, a part of the Mediterranean basin that has not been so well studied in the literature before. %In the present work, we are interested in Near- Real time applications, simple model for combining drifters with altimetry. challenge remains to keep it physical %Realistic models involving highly complex physics are of course desirable but From the methodological point of view, combining altimetric and drifters data has been done using statistical approaches, with availability of extensive data sets. A common approach is to use regression models to combine geostrophic, wind and drifters components, with the drifters' velocity component being computed from drifters' positions using a pseudo-Lagrangian approach. When large data sets are available, this approach produces an unbiased refinement of the geostrophic circulation maps, with better spatial resolution. (e.g. \citet{poulain2012surface,menna2012surface,uchida2003eulerian,maximenko2009mean,niiler2003near,stanichny2015parameterization}). Another approach relies on variational assimilation: the work of \citet{taillandier2006variational} is based on a simple advection model for the drifters' positions that is matched to observations via optimisation. The implementation of this method first assumes the time-independent approximation of the velocity correction, then superimposes inertial oscillations on the mesoscale field. These variational techniques had led to the development of the so called ``LAgrangian Variational Analysis" (LAVA) algorithm, initially tested and applied to correct model velocity fields using drifter trajectories \citep{taillandier2006assimilation,taillandier2008variational} and later customised to several other applications such as model assimilation \citep{chang2011enhanced,taillandier2010integration} and more recently blending drifters and altimetry to estimate surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico \citet{berta2015improved}. %applied it %, where they also added a measure of performance consisting of skill scores, that compare %the separation between observed and hindcast trajectories to the observed absolute dispersion. From the application point of view, blending drifters and altimetric data has been successfully applied to several basins, for example in: the Gulf of Mexico \citep{berta2015improved}, the Black Sea \citep{kubryakov2011mean,stanichny2015parameterization} the North Pacific \citep{uchida2003eulerian}, and the Mediterranean Sea \citep{taillandier2006assimilation,poulain2012surface,menna2012surface}. In \citet{menna2012surface}, there was a particular attention to the levantine sub-basin, where large historical data sets from 1992 to 2010 were used to characterise surface currents. The specific region which lies between the coasts of Lebanon, Syria and Cyprus, is however characterised by a scarcity of data. In the present work, we use in addition to the data sets used in \citet{menna2012surface}, more recent data from 2013 (in the context of Altifloat project) to study this particular region. Our contribution focuses on the methodological aspect, and it can be considered an extension of the variational approach used in \citet{taillandier2006variational}. The purpose is to add physical considerations to the surface velocity estimation, without making the method too complex, in order to still allow for Near Real Time applications. We do that by constraining the geostrophic component of that velocity to be divergence-free, and by adding a component due to the effect of the wind, in the fashion done in \citet{poulain2009}. We also provide a time-continuous correction by: (i) assimilating a whole trajectory of drifters at once and (ii) using a moving time window where observations are correlated. We show that with few drifters, our method improves the estimation of an eddy between the Lebanese coast and Cyprus, and predicts real drifters trajectories along the Lebanese coast. %One of the particularities of the Levantine bassin is an ensemble of 'tourbillons",? where? This manuscript is organised as follows. We begin in Section 2. by describing the data sets used in the method and the validation process. In Section 3., we provide a thorough description of the method including the definition of parameters involved, the model, and the optimisation procedure. We validate the method by conducting a twin experiment and a set of sensitivity analysis in Section 4., followed by two real experiments in Section 5., one in a coastal configuration and another in an eddy. % le tourbillon au sud de Chypre et le tourbillon de Shikmona peu prs la mme latitude louest de la cte du Liban. Cet ensemble, parfois aussi appel complexe tourbillonaire de Shikmona 12, est une structure permanente au sud de Chypre avec une variabilit saisonnire. Cest sur cet ensemble et sur son lien avec la topographie, notamment le mont sous-marin ratosthne sur lequel nous nous pencherons en particulier dans cette tude, comme daprs la figure En effet, les monts sous-marins sont considrs comme une des causes des volutions marines de mso-chelle.13. Dans le cas du mont ratosthne, il est possible que son influence sur la masse deau environnante soit augmente par son intraction avec les tourbillons quasi-permanents du complexe de Shikmona 14. La circulation dans le secteur du mont ratosthne est domine par un anticyclone correspondant au tourbillon de Chypre. Here say that coastal configuration ?? \begin{figure}[htbp] \begin{center} \includegraphics[scale=0.5]{./fig/RealvsSimulatedTraj.pdf} %\vspace{-30mm} \caption{Altifloat drifters deployed on Aug 28 2013 (shown in $-$x) versus trajectories simulated using the \textit{Aviso} field (shown in $\tiny{--}$). The velocity field shown is the \textit{Aviso} field, averaged over 6 days.} \label{fig:cnrs} \end{center} \end{figure} \section{Data} All the data detailed in this section were extracted for two target period : first from 25 August 2009 to 3 September 2009, and second from 28 August 2013 to 4 September 2013. \subsection {\label{sec:aviso}Altimetry data} Geostrophic surface velocity fields used as a background in the study were produced by Ssalt/\textit{Duacs} and distributed by \textit{Aviso}. Altimetric mission used were Saral, Cryosat-2, Jason-1\&2. The geostrophic absolute velocity fields were deduced from Maps of Absolute Dynamic Topography (MADT) using the regional Mediterranean Sea product~\footnote{www.aviso.altimetry.fr}. Data were mapped daily at a resolution of 1/8$^o$. Data were linearly interpolated every hour at the advection model time step. \subsection{\label{sec:drifters}Drifters data} Drifters were deployed during two target periods, 2 drifters were selected for the first period in 2009 and 3 in the second period in 2013. Table~\ref{tab:drifters} presents a summary of the 5 drifters used in this study. Drifter models were SVP with a drogue at a depth of 15m. Drifter positions were filtered with a low-pass filter in order to remove high-frequency current component especially inertial currents. The final time series were obtained by sampling every 6h. A more complete description of the drifters and the data processing procedure can be found in~\citet{poulain2009}. \begin{table} \centering \begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline Project & Deploy Date & Lat & Lon & Last Date & Lat & Lon \\ \hline NEMED & 29 Jul. 2009 & 31.90 & 34.42 & 28 Oct. 2009 & 34.1 & 31.77 \\ \hline NEMED & 03 Aug. 2009 & 32.59 & 32.63 & 26 Dec. 2009 & 32.92 & 34.28 \\ \hline Altifloat & 27 Aug. 2013 & 33.28 & 34.95 & 22 Sep. 2013 & 36.77 & 35.94 \\ \hline Altifloat & 27 Aug. 2013 & 33.28 & 34.98 & 04 Sep. 2013 & 34.13 & 35.64 \\ \hline Altifloat & 27. Aug. 2013 & 33.28 & 35.03 & 17 Sep. 2013 & 34.88 & 35.88 \\ \hline \end{tabular} \caption{\label{tab:drifters} List of drifters used to illustrate the methodology presented in this study, 2 drifters deployed in 2009 (results were detailed in section~\ref{sec:cyprus}) and 3 drifter were deployed in 2013 (results were detailed in sections~\ref{sec:lebanon})} \end{table} \subsection{Wind Data} ECMW ERA-Interim wind products~\citep{Dee2011} were extracted in order to estimate wind-driven currents. Wind velocities closest to the surface (10 m) were extracted at a resolution of 1/8$^o$ at the same grid point as the \textit{Aviso} data. The data were resampled on a hourly time step. Wind velocities were used to estimate wind-driven effect on drifter velocity. The Eulerian velocity field being in the advection model(Eq.~\ref{advection}) is the sum of the geostrophic velocity and the wind induced velocity (Eq.~\ref{euler_vel}) given by the formula~\citep{poulain2009}: \begin{equation} \mathbf{U_{wind}} = 0.01exp(-28^oi)\times \mathbf{U_{10}} \end{equation} where $\mathbf{U_{wind}} = u_{wind}+iv_{wind}$ is the velocity induced by the wind and $ \mathbf{U_{10}} = u_{10}+iv_{10}$ is the wind velocity above the surface (10m) expressed as complex numbers. \subsection {Model data} Modeled surface velocity fields for September 2013 were used to calibrate the assimilation method presented in section~\ref{sec:method}. The model selected was the CYCOFOS-CYCOM high resolution model~\citep{zodiatis2003,zodiatis2008} that covers northeast Levantine basin (1km resolution, west and south boundaries extended to 31$^o$00'E and 33$^o$00'N and north and east reach land). %the North-East Levantin Bassin %(31$^o$ 30’E - 36$^o$ 13’E and 33$^o$ 30’N – 36$^o$ 55’N). The model forecasts were used without assimilation and were reinteroplated on a 1.8$^o$ grid point with an time step of one hour. % The model forecast used for calibration purpose on September 2013. \section{\label{sec:method}Method} %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% \subsection{Statement of the problem} We consider $N_f$ Lagrangian drifters released at time $t=0$ at various locations. These drifters provide their positions every $\Delta t$, over a period $[0,T_f]$. Our objective is to determine an estimate of the two-dimensional Eulerian surface velocity field \begin{equation}\notag \mathbf{u}(x,y,t)=(u(x,y,t),v(x,y,t)) \end{equation} characterized by a typical length scale $R$, given observations of the drifters' positions \begin{equation} \bo{r}^{obs}_i(n\Delta t), \,\,\, i=1,2, \cdots, N_f, \,\,\, n=1, 2, \cdots N, \,\,\, \text{where}\,\,\, N \Delta t= T_f. \end{equation} The velocity shall be estimated on a specified grid with resolution of $1/8^{\circ}$ in both longitude and latitude, and in the time frame $[0, T_f].$ The estimation is done following a variational assimilation approach \citep{courtier1994strategy,dimet1986variational}, whereby the first guessed velocity, or background $\bo{u_b}$, is corrected by matching the observations with a model that simulates the drifters' trajectories. This correction is obtained using a sliding time window of size $T_w$, where we assume $\Delta t